The global PV industry in 2021 is full of dreams and suspense. What signals did you read in the CPIA annual report?

The global PV industry in 2021 is full of dreams and suspense.

Obviously, the production capacity of silicon material is sufficient for the global installed capacity, but it is hard to find one, and the price has skyrocketed by 400%;

Obviously, the cost of photovoltaic materials has skyrocketed, and the price of modules has returned to two years ago.

Obviously there is excess production capacity, many operating rates are less than half, and the upstream prices are rising and the downstream prices are undercutting, but the stock price has repeatedly hit new highs.

Like China PV, the annual report of China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) represents the annual report of the global PV industry and is the focus of PV people every year. In this year's 12.15CPIA annual report, what signals did you read?

1. Who is hoarding goods in the industry chain?

Who is hoarding goods in the photovoltaic industry chain, this is the soul of the photovoltaic industry in 2021!

According to the report, in the first three quarters of this year, China's silicon production reached 360,000 tons (up 24.1% year-on-year), silicon wafer production reached 165GW (up 54.2% year-on-year), battery production reached 147GW (up 54.6% year-on-year), and module production 130GW (up 58.5% year-on-year).

Note that CPIA counts the output of Q1-3, not production capacity. According to the output of silicon materials: silicon wafers, China consumed 500,000 tons of polysilicon in Q1-3 this year, which is equivalent to importing 140,000 tons, while only about 100,000 tons were imported in the past year. In the first three quarters, both domestic and foreign, polysilicon factories have been running at full capacity for only one reason: some people are willing to buy at high prices. Moreover, calculating the polysilicon gap based on the output of silicon wafers, China's domestic polysilicon should not be stocked.

Since the global silicon wafer production capacity is basically in China, it can be assumed that the global silicon wafer production capacity is about 170GW. From the perspective of the output of cells and modules in China, if there is no stock of silicon wafers and cells, it can be considered that 18GW of silicon wafers and 17GW of cells are exported overseas, and the output of overseas modules is about 35GW.

Will there really be 18GW of wafers and 17GW of cells exported? Is there really 35GW of module production overseas?

According to the statistics of the 2021 China Photovoltaic Revenge: In the first three quarters of this year, the United States added 15.7GW of photovoltaics, and due to tariff reasons, there will be basically no Chinese manufacturing; India's new 8.81GW in the first three quarters is expected to be about 2.5GW of local production; plus Based on local supply in Europe, Africa, America, Asia and other places, it is estimated that the output of overseas modules may be 30GW. China does export a lot of silicon wafers and batteries.

It can be seen that China's 165GW of silicon wafer production, minus 147GW of battery production, and then minus exports, if there is any remaining, it is basically a safety stock. The same is true for the battery side. The output of 147GW minus the 130GW of components used, and then minus the export, if there is any surplus, it is also a safety stock.

Silicon materials are not stocked, silicon wafers are not stocked, batteries are not stocked, and the remaining focus is on components. In the first three quarters, China's module output was 130GW. CPIA data believes that module exports from January to October were 82.2GW. Assuming that it was 74GW from January to September, there are still 56GW of modules left in China.

The problem is that China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the first three quarters was only 25.56GW, and nearly 30GW of modules became inventories. Inventory of overseas modules is expected to be 15-20GW.

Who's stocking up on components? Just for the Q4 rush?